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The 25th Annual Economic Forecast Conference occurred on January 9th at Chico State University. Hosted by the North State Planning & Development Collective, the conference agenda included presentations regarding artificial intelligence, economic development initiatives, and the economic forecast presented each year by Dr. Robert Eyler.
The forecast data is helpful in understanding the trends we are experiencing and can expect. That said, they are just forecasts. As you will see in the notes and graphs below, we have the ability to influence these trends. Here are some key points from my notes during the forecast presentation.
At the National Level:
- Employment is up 4% from 2020 (Covid) levels.
- Dr. Eyler feels that the chance of another recession is relatively low.
- The number of new job openings and people quitting their jobs are fading.
- Inflation peaked at 5.5% a couple of years ago. It was 2.8% last November.
- Projections indicate a downward trend (in inflation) to approximately 2% by 2028.
- Dr. Eyler feels that the new administration’s efforts regarding tariffs and immigration-related deportations will not have a large impact on the economy, primarily because he does not expect implementation to be as aggressive as the rhetoric.
- Homeownership – at the national level, 40% of homes are owned outright.
Here in California:
- The labor force is slowly increasing, though still not at prior peak levels.
- The employment rate is mostly flat, which is way up from the low point during the pandemic
- Unemployment is increasing slightly.
- Population & Jobs
- We are seeing an increase in the number of California-based company jobs being held by people who live outside the state
- Our population has aged – meaning the average age of residents has increased.
- Services will be the biggest growth area for California
Regional Data:
- Shasta County lost some of its labor force over the last 25 years, but levels are creeping back up from pandemic levels
- 56.5% to 58.2% of employees work for companies with less than five employees
- Business Development needs for the region include infrastructure, labor force, housing choice, etc.
- Housing – most counties are seeing growth in housing prices. The exception is in areas most impacted by the cannabis industry (Trinity, Humboldt, Mendicino)
- Population – 2021 was a recent low point; numbers have been creeping back up.
- Low growth areas – important to focus on the quality of life and to look for ways to leverage what you already have to create new jobs
- Local government – needs to become more business/development friendly.
Trinity County Data:
This chart shows that the number of jobs in Trinity County hit a low point in 2020 (pandemic era) and has been moving back up since.
It also indicates that a good portion of the jobs held by people who live in Trinity County are with companies headquartered outside of Trinity County.
66% of jobs held by Trinity County residents are with companies that have less than five employees. As you can see in the chart, this is a higher percentage than in other North State counties and the state overall.
One key takeaway (and probably no surprise) is that small businesses are hugely important here in Trinity County.
Trinity County (like Mendicino and Humboldt) trails most counties in median housing price growth. The five-year view does show a 5.4% increase. Dr. Eyler noted that counties that experienced a large uptick in housing prices during the “green rush” are now experiencing the aftermath of these sudden increases.
An example of this – I recently visited a cannabis-related property that sold for well over $1 million during the green rush and is now on the market for less than $200,000.
Median home prices in Trinity County are forecasted to decrease by 4.4% in 2025. As you can see, we are not alone in anticipating a downward trend – with the Mendicino forecast calling for a 5% decrease.
It’s important to note that we (like Mendicino) are likely still feeling the rebound effect of sudden home price growth during the “green rush.”
This chart clearly illustrates the impact of the “green rush” on the population of Trinity County. Our population has decreased significantly since the peak in 2016-2017. Population levels stabilized over the last four years with numbers similar to those in 2000, 2007, and 2008.
You can also see that we experienced an influx of foreign residents during 2021, balancing out the net loss of domestic residents who left the county during the same time period.
This chart shows how the population’s demographic makeup is projected to change over the next 25 years. At the macro level, we can anticipate an increase of just over 1,000 people.
Looking closer, we see that we can expect a greater number (and percentage) of people under 45 years old – including an increase in the number of children.
Sharing Information | Encouraging Engagement
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